Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Taylor from EV Insight

Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-114/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 73.5 (-114) after it opened @ 73.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to accrue 17.2 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
The Las Vegas Raiders safeties rank as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Cons

The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 5th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.70 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has produced the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 4.37 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards