Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 81.5 (-130) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).

Pros

The 49ers are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 45.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 19.7 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has grinded out 64.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (85th percentile).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 6.01 yards-per-carry.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The San Francisco 49ers have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards