Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Deebo Samuel from EV Insight

Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards

Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to total 7.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Deebo Samuel has been among the top WRs in the game this year, averaging a terrific 58.0 yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
Deebo Samuel’s skills in generating extra yardage have improved this season, notching 11.65 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 8.66 figure last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (68.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (68.6%).

Cons

The 49ers are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
Deebo Samuel has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (44.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards