Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Foster MoreauReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Raiders vs. Colts
Right now, Foster Moreau’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-113/-121).
The public has bet the OVER up to 34.5 (-113) after it opened @ 33.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Foster Moreau to accumulate 5.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
- Foster Moreau has compiled a colossal 22.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among tight ends.
- Foster Moreau’s 22.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 15.7.
Cons
- The Raiders are a 4-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Foster Moreau’s pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging just 7.01 yards-per-target compared to a 8.50 mark last year.
- The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
