Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Raiders vs. Colts
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 83.5 (-137) after it opened @ 88.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Raiders are a 4-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 18.8 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- Josh Jacobs has been a more important option in his offense’s rushing attack this year (85.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (67.7%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
- Josh Jacobs has run for many more yards per game (94.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense owns the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 4.19 yards-per-carry.
- The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the best unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards
87
Rushing Yards
