Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 83.5 (-137) after it opened @ 88.5 (-115).

Pros

The Raiders are a 4-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 18.8 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been a more important option in his offense’s rushing attack this year (85.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (67.7%).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Josh Jacobs has run for many more yards per game (94.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Indianapolis Colts defense owns the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 4.19 yards-per-carry.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the best unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards