Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Davis Mills from EV Insight

Davis MillsPassing Yards

Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-110) after it opened @ 208.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a giant 13.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Giants defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Davis Mills’s passing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.1% to 62.1%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
223
Passing Yards