Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (+145/-205).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 231.5 (-205) after it opened @ 233.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- Jared Goff has been among the best quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a stellar 247.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
- The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency this year, giving up 8.31 yards-per-target: the 7th-most in the NFL.
- The Chicago Bears cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
- The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
- The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Jared Goff’s throwing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.2% to 63.0%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
218
Passing Yards
218
Passing Yards
