Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 285.5 yards (+106/-145).
The public has bet the OVER up to 285.5 (+106) after it opened @ 279.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.1 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 44.4 passes in this contest, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
- Tom Brady’s passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.3% to 64.1%.
- Tom Brady’s throwing effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling a measly 6.53 yards-per-target vs a 7.57 figure last year.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have incorporated play action on a measly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
306
Passing Yards
306
Passing Yards
