Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Malik WillisPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Titans
Right now, Malik Willis’s passing yards prop is set at 150.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 150.5 (-125) after it opened @ 150.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Titans are a big 13.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 2nd-most yards in the league (298.0 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in the league versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (73.9%).
- The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 52.7 plays per game.
- The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 8th-best LB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
183
Passing Yards
183
Passing Yards
