Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenyan DrakeRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Saints vs. Ravens
Right now, Kenyan Drake’s rushing yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Kenyan Drake to be a much bigger part of his team’s running game this week (41.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (29.9% in games he has played).
- Kenyan Drake has rushed for a lot more yards per game (41.0) this season than he did last season (21.0).
- Kenyan Drake’s ground effectiveness has been refined this season, compiling 4.96 yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.99 mark last season.
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 41.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The New Orleans Saints defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards
46
Rushing Yards
