Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Josh Palmer from EV Insight

Josh PalmerReceiving Yards

Right now, Josh Palmer’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-105) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to earn 8.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

Josh Palmer’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, averaging a measly 6.68 yards-per-target vs a 8.27 mark last season.
The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards