Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Patriots vs. Colts
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-105) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.
- Hunter Henry has been among the most effective receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a stellar 8.51 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 78th percentile.
- Hunter Henry’s skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this season, totaling 5.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 2.48 mark last season.
- The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
- The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
- Hunter Henry has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
