WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bengals vs. Panthers
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-120) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
- Hayden Hurst has run fewer routes this season (74.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (44.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to garner 5.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Hayden Hurst has been among the worst TEs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 3.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 21st percentile.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.63 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in football.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
