Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tommy Tremble from EV Insight

Tommy TrembleReceiving Yards

Right now, Tommy Tremble’s receiving yards prop is set at 11.5 yards (-114/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 11.5 (-115) after it opened @ 11.5 (-110).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback PJ Walker in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
Tommy Tremble has been responsible for a monstrous 9.3% of his offense’s air yards this year: 76th percentile among tight ends.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (81.6%) to tight ends this year (81.6%).

Cons

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tommy Tremble’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 62.0% to 53.2%.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 38.0) to TEs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards