WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Tommy TrembleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bengals vs. Panthers
Right now, Tommy Tremble’s receiving yards prop is set at 11.5 yards (-114/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 11.5 (-115) after it opened @ 11.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback PJ Walker in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- Tommy Tremble has been responsible for a monstrous 9.3% of his offense’s air yards this year: 76th percentile among tight ends.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (81.6%) to tight ends this year (81.6%).
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Tommy Tremble’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 62.0% to 53.2%.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 38.0) to TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards
16
Receiving Yards
