Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Commanders vs. Vikings
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-139) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Terry McLaurin has been among the leading WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 66.0 yards per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (178.0) to wide receivers this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Terry McLaurin has compiled far fewer air yards this year (86.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
- The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
