Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to total 6.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
- Tyler Conklin has been among the top pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 39.0 yards per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.
Cons
- The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 39.0) vs. TEs this year.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed good efficiency against TEs this year, allowing 6.10 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
