Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 275.5 (-110) after it opened @ 278.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 71.7% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 39.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
- Josh Allen has thrown for a lot more yards per game (309.0) this year than he did last year (249.0).
Cons
- The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in the league against the New York Jets defense this year (66.7%).
- The New York Jets pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, surrendering 6.72 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in the league.
- The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
290
Passing Yards
290
Passing Yards
