Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 81.5 (-110) after it opened @ 80.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 71.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to earn 10.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs has accumulated substantially more receiving yards per game (110.0) this season than he did last season (67.0).

Cons

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The New York Jets defense has given up the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 133.0) versus wide receivers this year.
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.2%) vs. WRs this year (63.2%).
The New York Jets pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, giving up 7.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.
The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
94
Receiving Yards