Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 253.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 253.5 (-105) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Geno Smith’s passing precision has gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.8% to 72.3%.

Cons

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 53.9 plays per game.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have utilized motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
288
Passing Yards