Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 89.5 (-135) after it opened @ 88.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accrue 11.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been much more involved in his offense’s pass attack this season (33.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (26.6%).
Tyreek Hill has totaled many more air yards this year (135.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
Tyreek Hill has accumulated significantly more receiving yards per game (106.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).

Cons

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards