Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki from EV Insight

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-125) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to earn 3.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
Mike Gesicki’s receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 67.2% to 75.1%.
Mike Gesicki’s pass-catching effectiveness has gotten better this year, notching 9.38 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.85 rate last year.
Mike Gesicki’s talent in generating extra yardage have improved this season, compiling 4.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 2.85 rate last season.

Cons

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
Mike Gesicki has accrued far fewer air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards