Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bears vs. Dolphins
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to garner 14.8 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
- Raheem Mostert has garnered 61.7% of his team’s carries this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (158 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-least run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 35.6% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
