Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Mac Jones from EV Insight

Mac JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 208.5 yards (-115/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 208.5 (-114) after it opened @ 210.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in the NFL versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year (73.5%).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.80 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in football.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 33.8 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
242
Passing Yards