Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jaguars vs. Raiders
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-115) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 4th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
- Christian Kirk has run fewer routes this year (94.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (81.8%).
- THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to garner 7.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (71.9%) vs. WRs this year (71.9%).
Cons
- Christian Kirk has accrued far fewer air yards this season (65.0 per game) than he did last season (72.0 per game).
- Christian Kirk’s sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.9% to 60.5%.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.46 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the NFL.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
