Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jaguars vs. Raiders
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-133) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 4th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to accrue 17.3 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be much more involved in his team’s run game this week (68.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.0% in games he has played).
- Travis Etienne has averaged 70.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in football among RBs (91st percentile).
- Travis Etienne’s running efficiency (6.12 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (100th percentile among RBs).
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has produced the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering just 4.38 yards-per-carry.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards
87
Rushing Yards
