Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-115) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback PJ Walker in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to notch 9.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among WRs.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
D.J. Moore’s ability to pick up extra yardage has improved this season, totaling 5.15 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 4.04 figure last season.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.6 plays per game.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.43 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards