College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Eagles
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-115) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to earn 17.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.
- Dameon Pierce has received 82.1% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking in the 98th percentile among RBs.
- Dameon Pierce has grinded out 77.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (93rd percentile).
- Dameon Pierce has been among the best running backs in the league at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a terrific 3.80 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a huge 13.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 30.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.4 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 109 per game) against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards
82
Rushing Yards
