Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jordan Akins from EV Insight

Jordan AkinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Jordan Akins’s receiving yards prop is set at 16.5 yards (-118/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 16.5 (-110) after it opened @ 17.5 (-120).

Pros

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
Jordan Akins has totaled significantly more receiving yards per game (36.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 56.7 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
The Houston Texans offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards