Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
MLB Dream
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Browns vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-101) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.6 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 18.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has earned 83.8% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- The Cleveland Browns defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding 5.12 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Joe Mixon’s rushing effectiveness (3.44 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (10th percentile among RBs).
- Joe Mixon has been worse at grinding out extra ground yardage this year, accumulating 2.02 yards-after-contact vs a 3.09 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
