Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
MLB Dream
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Browns vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 265.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 265.5 (-125) after it opened @ 267.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 67.3% pass rate.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.6 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Joe Burrow has attempted 39.5 passes per game this year, grading out in the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Joe Burrow has passed for a lot more yards per game (292.0) this year than he did last year (211.0).
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: least in the league.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- The Cleveland Browns defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
279
Passing Yards
279
Passing Yards
