WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Andy DaltonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Saints vs. Raiders
Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 243.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 243.5 (-139) after it opened @ 251.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New Orleans Saints will be forced to use backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Andy Dalton has passed for many more yards per game (227.0) this year than he did last year (183.0).
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 6th-most yards in football (287.0 per game) versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 33.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
- The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
- The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
266
Passing Yards
266
Passing Yards
