Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cooper KuppReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Rams vs. 49ers
Right now, Cooper Kupp’s receiving yards prop is set at 93.5 yards (-163/+118).
The public has bet the OVER up to 93.5 (-163) after it opened @ 91.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 66.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Cooper Kupp to total 11.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
- Cooper Kupp’s 80.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 71.9.
- Cooper Kupp has been among the top pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an impressive 101.0 yards per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 8th-least in football.
- Cooper Kupp has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (90.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Cooper Kupp’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, notching just 8.68 yards-per-target compared to a 10.36 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
115
Receiving Yards
115
Receiving Yards
