Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Rams vs. 49ers
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-114/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 260.5 (-115) after it opened @ 261.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 66.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Matthew Stafford has attempted 38.9 passes per game this year, grading out in the 75th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Matthew Stafford has passed for quite a few more yards per game (264.0) this year than he did last year (219.0).
- Matthew Stafford’s throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 65.4% to 69.5%.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 8th-least in football.
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 10th-least yards in the NFL (just 218.0 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.63 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
295
Passing Yards
295
Passing Yards
