Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darrell HendersonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Rams vs. 49ers
Right now, Darrell Henderson’s rushing yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (+105) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to be much more involved in his offense’s running game this week (51.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (38.0% in games he has played).
- The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 2nd-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 33.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Darrell Henderson has run for substantially fewer yards per game (31.0) this year than he did last year (54.0).
- Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 90 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Rushing Yards
45
Rushing Yards
