Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Raheem Mostert from EV Insight

Raheem MostertRushing Yards

Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-118/-112).

The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-118) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to accumulate 16.3 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
Raheem Mostert has garnered 60.6% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
Opposing offenses have run for the most yards in the NFL (168 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense this year.
The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the 28th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 9th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards