Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 279.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 279.5 (-110) after it opened @ 264.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 37.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for significantly more yards per game (247.0) this year than he did last year (204.0).
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in football vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year (74.4%).

Cons

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
315
Passing Yards