Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davis MillsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Texans vs. Titans
Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 229.5 (-110) after it opened @ 230.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
- Davis Mills has passed for a lot more yards per game (224.0) this year than he did last year (198.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have called the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 56.7 plays per game.
- Davis Mills has been among the least effective QBs in football this year, averaging a lowly 6.50 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 20th percentile.
- The Tennessee Titans defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
- The Houston Texans offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
249
Passing Yards
249
Passing Yards
