Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 84.5 (-110) after it opened @ 83.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to total 18.2 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has been a much bigger part of his team’s rushing attack this year (84.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (67.7%).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Josh Jacobs has rushed for significantly more yards per game (110.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.72 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends rank as the 4th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a measly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards