Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Jaguars vs. Broncos
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to notch 8.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
- Courtland Sutton has been a more important option in his offense’s air attack this year (25.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (19.4%).
Cons
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Courtland Sutton has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 58.9% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 20th percentile among wideouts
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (63.2%) to wide receivers this year (63.2%).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
