Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 273.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 273.5 (-110) after it opened @ 275.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 38.7 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
Josh Allen has thrown for significantly more yards per game (326.0) this year than he did last year (249.0).

Cons

The Bills are a massive 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the least yards in the NFL (just 192.0 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
288
Passing Yards