Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Packers
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 273.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 273.5 (-110) after it opened @ 275.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 38.7 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Josh Allen has thrown for significantly more yards per game (326.0) this year than he did last year (249.0).
Cons
- The Bills are a massive 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the least yards in the NFL (just 192.0 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
- The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
288
Passing Yards
288
Passing Yards
