Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aaron Rodgers from EV Insight

Aaron RodgersPassing Yards

Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 230.5 (-110) after it opened @ 246.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a massive 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 39.5 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with an impressive 67.9% Completion%, grading out in the 86th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 9th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Aaron Rodgers’s passing effectiveness has worsened this year, notching a mere 6.84 yards-per-target vs a 8.15 rate last year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, surrendering 6.82 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.81 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
249
Passing Yards