Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brevin JordanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Raiders vs. Texans
Right now, Brevin Jordan’s receiving yards prop is set at 16.5 yards (-104/-118).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 16.5 (-118) after it opened @ 16.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has given up the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (77.1%) to tight ends this year (77.1%).
Cons
- Brevin Jordan’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.7% to 48.1%.
- Brevin Jordan’s receiving effectiveness has declined this season, accumulating just 1.22 yards-per-target compared to a 6.32 figure last season.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the league.
- The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Houston Texans have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
