Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-113/-117).

The public has bet the OVER up to 82.5 (-113) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 66.1% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Ja’Marr Chase to total 9.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
Ja’Marr Chase has been much more involved in his team’s passing offense this season (29.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (24.1%).
Ja’Marr Chase has put up a lot more receiving yards per game (82.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).

Cons

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
Ja’Marr Chase has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (91.0 per game) than he did last season (109.0 per game).
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Ja’Marr Chase’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating a measly 8.48 yards-per-target compared to a 10.20 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards