Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Titans vs. Colts
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (-135) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 97.7% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
- Michael Pittman has notched significantly more receiving yards per game (85.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
- The Tennessee Titans defense has surrendered the 2nd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (209.0) versus wideouts this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Michael Pittman has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
