Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ian Thomas from EV Insight

Ian ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Ian Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 10.5 (-110) after it opened @ 11.5 (-120).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback PJ Walker in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Panthers are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Completion% in the league (81.6%) to tight ends this year (81.6%).

Cons

The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.3 plays per game.
Ian Thomas has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among tight ends, hauling in a measly 63.0% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 24th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 7th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line has given their QB just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
17
Receiving Yards