Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris from EV Insight

Najee HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 13.5 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Cons

The Steelers are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Najee Harris has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (41.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards