Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Dolphins vs. Steelers
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 13.5 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- The Steelers are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Najee Harris has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (41.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
- The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
