Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DK Metcalf from EV Insight

DK MetcalfReceiving Yards

Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68.7%) vs. wideouts this year (68.7%).

Cons

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 53.3 plays per game.
DK Metcalf has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, catching a measly 59.0% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 24th percentile among wide receivers
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards