Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Chargers vs. Seahawks
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68.7%) vs. wideouts this year (68.7%).
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 53.3 plays per game.
- DK Metcalf has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, catching a measly 59.0% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 24th percentile among wide receivers
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
- The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
