College Football Games of the Week: Week 8

This week we are looking at the biggest matchups that provide us with the best moneymaking opportunities across college football. After breaking down this week’s best games, these are the lines in these big games where I see the largest edges in the market.

UCLA vs. Oregon

(Oregon -6, O/U 71.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)

This week, College GameDay will be heading to Eugene, Oregon, for this huge Pac 12 matchup. With the reconfiguration of the Pac 12 Conference Championship game this year, it will be the two best teams in the conference that make the title game, regardless of division. That makes this game even more important for both teams as this will go a long way towards determining who will play in Las Vegas in December.

Oregon has been insanely good since being blown out by Georgia in the season opener. They have run over every opponent since then, ranking 1st in the country in rushing success rate. Overall, this offense ranks third in offensive success rate, and they are also 24th in passing success rate behind the arm of Bo Nix.

The defense for the Ducks has struggled mightily, however. This unit ranks 109th in defensive success rate and 118th in success rate against the pass.

This will be a major problem as UCLA ranks first in the country in passing success rate. The Bruins rank fourth in offensive success rate and 15th in rushing success rate. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is having a career year as he is in his fifth year starting for the Bruins. DTR is averaging 0.44 EPA per play and his name has popped into the Heisman conversation after UCLA’s 6-0 start.

SP+ rankings have these teams as very similar with UCLA having a slight edge over Oregon on both sides. However, with this game being played at Autzen Stadium, the Ducks are six-point favorites at home.

I think that this line is a tick high. UCLA has something special going this year and it would be very fitting for Chip Kelly to continue his miraculous year against his former school. This game has heavy shootout potential, but the difference will be the arm of Dorian Thompson-Robinson against this bad Oregon secondary.

The Pick

UCLA +6. Bet to +4.5.

Syracuse vs. Clemson

(Clemson -13.5, O/U 49.5, DraftKings Sportsbook) 

Syracuse football is off to its best start in years at 6-0. They will travel to Clemson to face off with the Tigers in an important ACC test. The Orange have benefitted this year heavily from their schedule and some luck.

Based on expected scores, Syracuse would have been expected to lose against Purdue when they actually came out with a close win at home. They also were able to place NC State last weekend without quarterback Devin Leary, leading to an easy win. The rest of their schedule has been extremely light with all but one game being played at Syracuse.

This schedule has inflated Syracuse’s efficiency numbers. The Orange rank 10th in offensive success rate and are sixth through the air and 20th on the ground. SP+ adjusts for this and has them as the No. 56 offense in the nation.

Defensively, Syracuse hasn’t been quite as good. They rank 49th in defensive success rate but are better in SP+ at 30th. The defense is capable but will face their first true test in this Clemson offense.

Clemson, on the other hand, is getting healthier on defense this week. Impacted by absences in their secondary and defensive line towards the beginning of the year, the Tigers have been slowly getting help back and the defense has been improving to what it was expected to be coming into the season. This unit now ranks 23rd in defensive success rate and is 19th in SP+. The Clemson defensive line is one of the best in the country, ranking 12th in PFF run defense grade and 5th in pass rushing grade.

The Tigers have been above average on offense this season but are far from spectacular. They are 32nd in offensive success rate and are just 52nd in passing success rate. This offense ranks 25th by SP+ and has some work to do but will still provide a test for the Orange.

Overall, I believe that Clemson will get the win this weekend at home as Syracuse’s luck will run out. Syracuse has upset Clemson in years’ past, but I don’t see that happening this weekend. Almost all books have Clemson as 13.5-point favorites. I would take this up to 14 before it goes through that potentially key number.

The Pick

Over 65.5 Points. Bet to 66

Texas vs. Oklahoma State

(Texas -6, O/U 61, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This Texas offense has been fantastic this year, but they have been even better when Quinn Ewers is under center. Ewers returned two weeks ago, and the Texas offense has had two great offensive performances against Oklahoma and Iowa State. 

Texas ranks sixth in offensive success rate, 11th in passing success rate, and 13th in rushing success rate. They are the ninth-best offense by SP+. Bijan Robinson is one of the best running backs in the country, and the Quinn Ewers-led passing attack has been especially effective this season. 

The Longhorns will now take on an Oklahoma State defense that has been down this year and just was decimated by TCU. The Oklahoma State defense ranks 48th in defensive success rate and is ranked 39th by SP+. Since the departure of Jim Knowles this offseason, Oklahoma State’s defense has struggled to reach the levels they were at last season.

Oklahoma State’s offense ranks 62nd in offensive success rate but is 16th by SP+. There are questions surrounding the health of quarterback Spencer Sanders this week. He has been battling a shoulder injury and there have been reports that he isn’t fully healthy, but as of right now it seems like he will try to play through this.

In this game, Texas’ team total is 33.5 points. The only teams to hold the Longhorns under this total this season have been Alabama and Iowa State, who both have defenses ranked in the top 15 by SP+. Ewers was hurt during the Alabama game and Texas still had a 79th percentile success rate. The Longhorns also had a 95th percentile success rate against Iowa State and should have won by more.

I am confident in the Texas offense performing well yet again, this time against an Oklahoma State defense that is being overrated by the markets still.

The Pick

Texas over 33.5 Points. Bet to 34.5