Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight

Noah FantReceiving Yards

Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (+100) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to total 4.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 53.3 plays per game.
Noah Fant has been much less involved in his team’s passing attack this year (12.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.5%).
Noah Fant has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
Noah Fant has accrued substantially fewer receiving yards per game (25.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (68.3%) to tight ends this year (68.3%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards