Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Chargers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 261.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 261.5 (-114) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Geno Smith’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.8% to 71.8%.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the league versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (73.2%).
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 53.3 plays per game.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.65 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in football.
- The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
282
Passing Yards
282
Passing Yards
